LOVE him or hate him, Donald Trump is the US president-elect and many are waiting to see whether he views Africa as a priority over the next few years.
Zakhele Ndlovu a political analyst from the University of KwaZulu-Natal said that with Trump coming in as the next president of the US South Africa could expect its relations with the country to change.
“In the past, US presidents from the Democratic party have been friendlier towards the ANC and the post-apartheid governments as compared to Republican administrations. President Reagan, for example, favoured constructive engagement policy towards the apartheid government in opposition to the ANC's support for economic sanctions. In this context, I expect relations to be less friendlier.
Ndlovu said that South Africa's decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice over its war on Palestine would not sit well with Trump.
“Israel is one of the US's strongest allies and both political parties in the US compete over which one is more pro-Israel. It does not help that South Africa's foreign policy appears erratic and inconsistent. On the one hand, it comes across as anti-Israel while, on the other hand, it claims neutrality in its approach to the war between Russia and Ukraine. So in the grand scheme of things, South Africa comes across as a non ally of the West with regards to the two ongoing wars,” Ndlovu said.
He said in addition, the ANC and the Republican government had fundamental disagreements regarding the role of the state in the economy.
“It's going to be interesting to see how the Trump administration is going to handle the AGOA trade agreement. Is Trump going to use AGOA to reward or punish South Africa for its decision to publicly accuse and have Israel prosecuted of genocide? By the way, Secretary of State Antony Blinkin referred to South Africa's case of genocide against Israel as "meritless", Ndlovu said.
He believed that South Africa would likely remain as the US's largest trading partner in Africa, despite its close relations with Brics partners such as China and Russia
Through AGOA, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, the US gives some countries in sub-Saharan Africa duty-free access to the U.S. market for a limited period of time.
Professor Andre Roux an economist at Stellenbosch Business School said Trump’s victory did not augur well for our country or the developing world at large. He said Trump was strong on protecting his own economy and it was likely that a swathe of tariffs would be instituted against imports which would possibly have a negative impact on AGOA.
However, Roux said that Trump was not at all concerned about Africa.
“There are also some collateral damages and collateral benefits that might accrue. I've mentioned one already, the effects of growing protectionism in America.
Relationships between China and America will probably be more troubled and we know that China is, for better or for worse, a major trade partner of Africa. If he succeeds in somehow bringing about peace in the Middle East and peace in Russia/ Ukraine, that of course could be good for the oil price thinking long term. But by and large, the markets will probably see his victory as a positive and America will be rediscovered as an investment destination, possibly at the expense of gold.”
Roux added that Trump seemed to be less enthusiastic about climate control, climate mitigation and climate change which in the longer term was not positive .
“He does, as we know, seem to have a majority in his party in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, which is going to make it much easier for him to pass Bills and Acts which suit him, but perhaps not always to the favour of the rest of the world. An intriguing question is whether or not other Western countries, might take his victory as a cue to also start imposing more intensive, more comprehensive ways of trying to curb imports from the developing world to protect their own industries, and whether or not all of this will have an impact on forced repatriation of so-called illegal immigrants,” said Roux.
He said Trump’s victory also brought into focus previous discussions about the rise of the Brics grouping and the possibility of a Brics currency.
“And there's no doubt that he will try very hard to retain and perhaps even boost the significance of the US dollar as the world's primary key currency,” said Roux.