This week the Saudi King reordered the kingdom’s inner power structure with potentially major implications for the future of Saudi Arabia and the region.
By naming his 31-year-old-son Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince, sweeping aside his son’s elder rival Mohammed bin Nayef, the king has determined the future trajectory of the country in terms of foreign and domestic policy.
For those who cringed at Saudi Arabia’s championing of the war of aggression against Yemen, there will be more of the same given that the new prince has presided over this war as defence minister.
He has shown no signs of backing down despite the war being unpopular at home and the rising costs of the bombing campaign.
There has been no thought for the Yemeni civilians facing starvation and who are being denied food and medical supplies by the Saudi-imposed naval blockade on the country.
Saudi air strikes have devastated Yemen’s weak infrastructure and left the country on the brink of famine, even as the front line of the battle is largely frozen. By the time the Saudi-led coalition ceases its military campaign, the country will be decimated.
But perhaps more serious for the peace and stability of the region is Bin Salman’s hawkish attitude towards Iran, which suggests an armed conflagration is more than likely.
Bin Salman recently declared: “We won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia, but we’ll work so the battle is for them in Iran.”
Just before becoming prince, Bin Salman ruled out dialogue with Iran and pledged to protect Saudi Arabia from what he perceives as Tehran’s efforts to dominate the Muslim world.
He said a conflict between the Sunni- led kingdom and Shia-led Iran appeared inevitable.
Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the Saudi leadership “idiots” whose policies would lead to “certain downfall”.
Bin Salman’s remarks have also helped to fuel the widespread belief that the Saudis were behind the recent terrorist attacks in Tehran that were claimed by the Islamic State.
Bin Salman will probably engage in covert efforts to destabilise Iran, if not engage in all-out warfare. He is confident that the US and Israel have his back, which might convince him that a war with Iran could weaken Iran’s military capabilities.
Iran’s influence as a significant power in the Islamic world is arguably the root cause of Saudi Arabia’s aggression, as it is aware that Iran is operating from a position of strength - with a burgeoning economy that is diversified away from natural resources, and a high degree of self-sufficiency.
Saudi Arabia is also aware that the Iranian leadership is more accountable to its people given its democratic elections, while Saudi Arabia has never held an electoral poll, and its subjects have little say in the running of the country.
This system might have been sustainable when the state’s coffers were full and the state could easily provide free education and health care, but with the slump in oil prices that have fallen from $100 (R1300) a barrel a few years ago to just $48, Saudi Arabia has fallen on hard times.
For the first time last September, the kingdom was compelled to introduce austerity measures and cancel the bonuses of those in the public sector.
The king reinstated them this week after much consternation among government workers. With a predominantly young populace, Bin Salman realises that he will need to introduce moderate reforms if he is to keep a lid on the frustration of the growing youth population, many of whom are unemployed. The state is faced with declining consumer confidence and falling oil prices.
His greatest challenge is that he has raised expectations over the past couple of years about what he can accomplish, without having delivered significant wins.
Bin Salman was responsible for producing Vision 2030 - a roadmap for reimagining the Saudi economy and diversifying it from its reliance on oil revenue. It will be difficult to succeed while pouring state resources into expensive and misguided military adventures.
It is not only in Iran and Yemen that Bin Salman will foment conflict; he has also been the mastermind behind the recent isolation of Qatar, along with his mentor Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the prince of the United Arab Emirates.
It is difficult to see how Bin Salman's meteoric rise to power will serve the interests of peace and security in either the Middle East or more broadly.
* Ebrahim is group foreign editor.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.