Gold’s history in South Africa dates back to the late 1800s, when a rush saw an effective shanty town developed in what is now Johannesburg. Pilgrims Rest and Barberton are historical sites for mining, with tourists still being able to pan for alluvial gold in Pilgrims Rest in Mpumalanga’s Drakensburg area.

Botha says gold has little material impact on South Africa’s economy today. Production peaked in 1993, while the current record low is as of 2022, according to data from CEIC.

South Africa has diversified significantly in terms of economic contributors, with services, manufacturing, and financial sectors now accounting for over 60% of gross domestic product, said Botha.

“While commodity exports remain important, gold is overshadowed by platinum, coal, and iron ore,” said Botha.

Jammine noted that gold was not irrelevant in terms of total export earnings, especially at current prices. However, calculations he did for IOL show that the yellow metal accounts for about 10% of total export earnings. “It’s not insignificant, but it’s not going to change everything in terms of South Africa’s performance.”

South Africa’s integration into global financial markets, alongside growth in tourism and technology, has diminished reliance on gold revenue, said Botha.

“Domestic factors such as political stability and fiscal policy, combined with global risk sentiment, now exert a far greater influence on the economy and the rand’s value than fluctuations in gold prices,” Botha added.

Where gold does have an impact is in its psychological value on shares and the currency, said Jammine. He said that the perception is that South Africa is still a major gold producer and, as people think South Africa will have a large benefit from the metal, there is a psychological advantage for the rand and gold mining shares.

In addition, said Jammine, because of the way gold miners’ costs are structured, there is a positive ratio in terms of a higher benefit from increased prices compared with rising mining costs.

IOL