Airfares between South Africa and Europe have surged by as much as 170% in recent weeks.
Image: Nicola Mawson | IOL
Airfares between South Africa and Europe have surged by as much as 170% in recent weeks before dropping back sharply, as fuel costs, route disruptions and peak travel demand collide.
Pricing data shows a direct flight from London’s Heathrow to OR Tambo International Airport rose from about R19,000 in December last year to R51,600 on 21 March – a 171% increase – before falling back to around R20,000, a drop of about 61% from its peak.
At the same time, flight pricing data seen on 25 March shows return tickets between Cyprus and Cape Town ranging between R57,000 and R58,600 via European routes.
Historically, those fares have been far lower. Data shared with IOL shows return tickets from Cyprus to Cape Town cost about R12,000 in 2022, rising to about R36,000 in December and now reaching about R57,000 – a roughly 375% increase over four years and about 60% since December alone.
Prices vary widely depending on routing. Current fare data indicates flights from Oslo to Cape Town are around R17,000 return, far lower than Cyprus routes, showing how availability and airline networks are driving price differences.
Industry data shows global airfares are up about 24% compared with the same week last year, according to OAG, highlighting how sharply some South Africa-linked routes have diverged from broader trends.
Currency movements have added to the pressure. Trading Economics said the rand has weakened 6.76% over the past month, although it remains 6.16% stronger over the past year.
The price swings come as oil and jet fuel costs surge. Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel this week, its highest level since 2022, according to Trading Economics.
App-based forex company Shyft said jet fuel prices have jumped from about $85–$90 a barrel to between $150 and $200. For an airline, fuel constitutes between 50% and 55% of total direct operating costs.
In South Africa, Jet A1 fuel prices have surged by about 70% in a single week at major airports, forcing airlines to introduce fuel surcharges and raise ticket prices, Shyft’s 26 March blog showed.
The wild surge in the price of flights to Europe recently.
Image: ChatGPT
Airspace disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have forced airlines to reroute or cancel flights, reducing capacity and pushing up prices.
Qatar Airways has been operating a reduced network using limited corridors, while uncertainty around hubs such as Doha has added to volatility. The airline is set to resume normal flights from next month.
One traveller said flights booked from Cyprus to Cape Town for R36,000 in December would now cost between R57,000 and R59,000 if rebooked via Europe.
“If we decided to buy new flights routed through Europe, it would have cost us between R57,000 and R59,000 per person… in 2022… we paid R12,000 for a return ticket,” the traveller said.
A view of historic aviation price increases.
Image: OAG
In addition to higher aviation fuel tax pushing up flight prices, the spikes in costs are also being driven by seasonal demand.
Easter travel and school holidays have pushed up bookings just as capacity has been constrained by route changes and cancellations.
South African schools closed on 28 March and go back on 7 April.
That combination has created sharp price swings rather than steady increases, with fares rising rapidly and then easing as availability shifts.
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