What bumper harvests mean for your budget
Food inflation may be slowing, but prices are still up 54% from eight years ago.
Image: Freepik
While consumers may be relieved to hear that food inflation is not increasing as quickly as before, this isn't all good news because all it means is that prices are going up at a slower pace.
Inflation represents the general and sustained increase in prices over time. Simply put, it means your money doesn't stretch as far as it used to – what cost R100 last year might cost R105 this year, leaving you with less buying power.
When inflation slows, prices don't fall – they just rise more gradually.
The grocery basket reality
Take the National Agricultural Marketing Council's (NAMC) basket of 28 items as an example. This basket tracks everyday essentials like beans, coffee and tea, dairy and eggs, cooking oils, fruit, meat, bread and cereals, vegetables, and sugary foods.
In July 2025, this basket cost R1 351.21 – up from R1 342.01 in June, representing a monthly increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year jump of 5.8%. Last July, the same basket cost R1 276.80.
Looking further back reveals the real impact on household budgets. In September 2017, the basket cost just R828.40, NAMC's data showed. That means food prices for these 28 items have surged 54% over the past eight years.
Globally, food inflation increased 7.6% in July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, driven mainly by rising meat and vegetable oil prices, NAMC noted in its latest print.
Locally, food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation reached 5.7% in July, with fruits, vegetables, and processed foods leading the charge, said NAMC.
The slowdown
Despite these increases, there is some relief on the horizon. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has averaged just 3.1% for the first eight months of this year, down from 4.4% last year, according to Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec.
August's figure came in at 3.3%, and the year is expected to close at 3.2%.
"Demand-pull price pressures are very subdued in the economy," Bishop said. "In addition, the rand has strengthened this year against the US dollar, and this is key for subduing international commodity price effects in South Africa."
International food prices fell by 2.4% in September, while the rand gained 1.5% against the dollar in the same period – factors that are already easing domestic food costs.
Relief from the harvest
South Africa's agricultural sector is delivering abundance. The Crop Estimates Committee lifted the country's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production forecast by nearly 5% to 20 million tonnes – almost 20% higher than last year.
"South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grains and oilseeds production," said the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz). "We see generally softening commodity prices, which are now at lower levels than last year, boding well for food price inflation."
Favourable summer rains and increased planting have created ample crop supply. South Africa's maize harvest is forecast at 15.8 million tonnes – 23% higher than last season and well above the country's annual needs of approximately 12 million tonnes.
Bishop noted that food prices are the single biggest category in the CPI and one of the biggest drivers of headline inflation. The plentiful harvest has already seen agricultural prices fall 4.2% in August, with meat and dairy prices also declining.
"Food price inflation will see these price moderation effects come through further in September," she said, adding that CPI could even contract in October as food price inflation continues to subside.
The importation of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines is also helping to prevent meat price escalation.
With petrol price increases remaining negligible, inflationary pressures are expected to remain mild in the coming months.
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