FMCG demand lifts third quarter retail sales, but tech sector weakens — NIQ South Africa

South Africa’s retail sector delivered robust growth in the third quarter of 2025 as consumers continued to spend on essential and discretionary fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), even while the country’s technology and durable goods market remained under sustained pressure, market researcher NielsenIQ (NIQ) South Africa said on Sunday.

In its latest State of the Retail Nation report, NIQ said consumers spent nearly R167.5 billion on FMCG products across both traditional and modern trade channels during the July–September period. The figure represents a year-on-year increase of 7.1% in total sales value, supported by an 8.7% rise in unit sales. Analysts say the combination of volume growth and moderate inflation suggests that demand held up better than expected despite subdued economic conditions.

The report comes at a time when South Africa is grappling with long-term structural challenges, including persistently sluggish economic growth — which has averaged below 1% for more than a decade — and an unemployment rate hovering above 40% on the broad definition. Yet NIQ’s data indicates that within households, spending patterns remain resilient in key categories that consumers prioritise even under financial pressure.

In contrast to the upbeat FMCG data, the Tech & Durables (T&D) segment continued to struggle. NIQ’s panel market tracking shows that weakness in telecommunications devices — including smartphones, tablets and related products — weighed heavily on the overall sector. According to the report, T&D spending fell 3% from a year earlier to R21.5 billion in the third quarter.

NIQ said the downturn in telecoms devices reflected a combination of consumers delaying upgrades, constrained disposable income and shifting household priorities. Analysts noted that the decline also highlights changes in South Africa’s device replacement cycles, which have lengthened as handsets become more expensive and consumers opt to keep existing devices for longer.

“The FMCG sector recorded a relatively strong quarter, with a stable rand, manageable inflation and steady fuel prices contributing to consumer spending,” said Zak Haeri, the managing director for NIQ in South Africa. “But with subdued economic growth and high long-term unemployment, consumer confidence remains fragile. Shoppers remain cautious and price-sensitive as retailers and manufacturers prepare for the all-important festive season trade.”

Within the FMCG category, NIQ said the strongest performers were non-alcoholic beverages, snacking products and tobacco — categories that have consistently outpaced the broader market through 2025. Non-alcoholic beverages rose 9.3% to nearly R22.6 billion for the quarter, supported by increased demand for ready-to-drink formats and functional beverages. The category also posted a 9.3% rise in unit sales, signalling that consumer appetite for beverage products remains healthy even in a tighter economic environment.

The snacking category saw value growth of 7.7% to R12.3 billion, while unit sales surged 15.9%, indicating sharp volume-driven momentum as consumers continue to purchase treats, convenience foods and impulse items. Tobacco sales recorded the strongest value growth of the leading categories, rising 11.5% to R6.6 billion, with unit sales up almost 14%. NIQ said the growth in tobacco reflects a combination of pricing trends, continued demand among core consumer groups and increased product availability.

Food — the largest FMCG category by value — climbed 8% to almost R61.7 billion in the third quarter, with unit sales increasing 7.7%. NIQ said staple foods, cooking ingredients and everyday household items saw consistent growth, supported by promotions and the ongoing shift toward private-label products as consumers search for affordability.

Most other major FMCG categories recorded solid growth during the quarter, with baby food and baby care products being the notable exceptions. The slowdown in these categories, NIQ said, may reflect demographic trends and the impact of rising costs on household purchasing decisions.

BUSINESS REPORT