South African SMEs face a tough road ahead but new trends could unlock growth opportunities

As South African small and medium enterprises (SMEs) brace for the challenges of 2026, a stark warning emerges: the operational landscape is riddled with rising costs and complex regulations that threaten business confidence.

Economic conditions continue to deteriorate, draining consumer spending power and placing nearly half of the nation's SMEs at risk of closure within the year, according to the latest Small Business Growth Index.

However, amid this uncertainty, three pivotal trends are emerging that could provide a lifeline for local businesses seeking resilience and growth.

The rise of mobile commerce

The digital shopping landscape is evolving rapidly, with South Africans increasingly turning to their smartphones for purchasing decisions.

In 2024, mobile devices are projected to dominate the country's e-commerce market, commanding a staggering 72.43% share.

With an anticipated 11.52% compound annual growth rate leading up to 2030 and the impending shutdown of 2G and 3G networks by December 2027, mobile commerce is on the cusp of a significant transformation.

Entrepreneurs are urged to capitalise on this shift by adopting a mobile-first approach.

Designing user-friendly websites tailored for mobile use, streamlining checkout processes, and offering customer support optimised for smartphones will position SMEs to tap into new markets and enhance customer engagement.

As Nelson Teixeira, managing director of Operations for Sub-Saharan Africa at FedEx, underscores, embracing mobile technology is not just an advantage; it's becoming a necessity.

A need for speed

In a world that prioritises convenience, consumer expectations are rising.

Research conducted by FedEx reveals that over 80% of consumers now favour swift and reliable service.

Home delivery options are preferred by 81%, while 76% seek free shipping, and 68% demand real-time tracking of their orders. Intriguingly, 38% of shoppers express willingness to pay for conveniences such as same-day delivery.

Teixeira highlights that adapting to these evolving expectations is vital for SMEs aiming to differentiate themselves.

Fast and dependable logistics partners emerge as critical players in this dynamic, allowing smaller enterprises to fulfil customer demands promptly and efficiently.

“For small businesses, meeting these expectations can translate directly into higher conversions, reduced cart abandonment, and stronger repeat engagement,” he notes, pointing to the direct benefits of investing in efficient logistics systems.

Borderless entrepreneurship

South Africa stands at the threshold of an exciting yet daunting export opportunity, with recent research from Rand Merchant Bank estimating a staggering R1.3 trillion in untapped potential over the next five years—one of the largest markets in Africa. Utilising e-commerce as a conduit for this growth will be pivotal.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is further paving the way for regional trade, as global supply chain disruptions underline the significance of localised markets.

Simultaneously, social commerce allows smaller enterprises to reach niche audiences across borders, facilitating international sales of everything from artisanal goods to fashion products.

Teixeira emphasises the necessity for SMEs to craft a global mindset from inception. Effective logistics support is key in navigating the complexities of cross-border trading, simplifying customs processes, and connecting businesses to international distribution networks.

“South African entrepreneurs have never lacked ingenuity,” he asserts. What will distinguish successful SMEs in 2026 is their ability to blend creativity with digital tools and strategic partnerships, enabling them to flourish regardless of the environing challenges.

With the right responses to these trends, South African SMEs can not only survive the impending pressures but also unlock pathways for sustainable growth.

By remaining alert and adaptable, they can discover innovative ways to thrive in an ever-changing business landscape.

Against this challenging backdrop, Nelson Teixeira, managing director of Operations for Sub-Saharan Africa at FedEx, identifies three key trends that could help local SMEs build resilience and unlock new demand to mitigate these headwinds.

The rise of mobile commerce

South Africans are shopping on their phones more than ever, with smartphones capturing 72.43% of the country’s e-commerce market in 2024.

This phenomenal growth is projected to grow at an 11.52% compound annual rate until 2030.

The planned shutdown of 2G and 3G networks in December 2027 will accelerate upgrades to 4G and 5G devices, pushing mobile adoption even higher. This transformation presents a major opportunity for local businesses.

 SMEs that design mobile-first websites, streamline the checkout process, and integrate mobile-friendly customer support channels will be in the strongest position to reach new audiences and convert demand.

A need for speed

As consumer expectations move towards instant gratification, SMEs must deliver faster, more reliable service to stay competitive. 

FedEx research shows that more than 80% of consumers now prioritize convenience, with home delivery favored by 81%, free shipping by 76%, and real-time tracking by 68%.

Notably, 38% of consumers are willing to pay for added convenience, including same-day or expedited delivery for urgent needs.

Teixeira notes that this shift reflects a broader behavioral change: customers expect responsiveness at every stage of the buying journey.

He explains that dependable logistics partners are becoming essential to SME growth because they enable faster fulfilment, improved visibility, and more consistent delivery performance.

“For small businesses, meeting these expectations can translate directly into higher conversions, reduced cart abandonment, and stronger repeat engagement.”

Borderless entrepreneurship

Recent research by Rand Merchant Bank shows that South Africa sits on an annual untapped export opportunity worth R1.3 trillion over the next five years, the largest of any African market. Realizing this potential will rely heavily on e-commerce.

“The AfCFTA continues to create new openings for regional trade, particularly as global supply chain disruptions highlight the value of diversified markets closer to home,” he explains.

“At the same time, social commerce is enabling even micro-businesses to reach niche communities across borders, from artisanal foods to fashion, sometimes drawing international buyers.”

Teixeira says this shift is already reshaping SME strategy, with more South African brands thinking globally from day one.

He adds that logistics plays a critical role in enabling this growth by simplifying cross-border processes, managing customs complexities, and connecting small businesses to international delivery networks.

“South African entrepreneurs have never lacked ingenuity,” says Teixeira.

“What will set the most successful SMEs apart in 2026 is the ability to match that ingenuity with the right digital tools, the right partners, and the confidence to pursue growth wherever it emerges. The businesses that stay alert to these shifts will not only withstand a difficult year – they will find new ways to thrive.”

BUSINESS REPORT